POLITICAL SCIENCE Y395
Quantitative Political Analysis
Fall, 2007
Professor James Lutz
lutz@ipfw.edu
211 Classroom Medical
Office Phone: 481-6688
Office Hours: MWF 11-12, WF 1:30-2:00 other times by appointment
Class Hours: MWF 10-11, WF 12-1:15, TR 9-10:15
This course is an introduction to the use of basic statistics in political inquiry. Common statistical measures will be introduced and explained in the context of data dealing with political problems or situations in most cases. By the end of the semester you should know how to use basic statistics, as well as know which statistical methods are appropriate for dealing with which problems. You should also be able to interpret the use of statistics in published works or in the general media, know whether the appropriate statistics were used, and know if the conclusions drawn are the correct ones, or at least defensible ones. This course meets the general education Quantitative Reasoning requirement.
The following texts are required for the course (all paperback)
Robert A. Bernstein and James A. Dyer, An Introduction to Political Science
Methods, 3rd ed.
Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics
Bernstein and Dyer provide more background for the statistics that are described, as well as some broader methodological concerns in their use. Huff warns about methodological misuse with statistics.
There will be three exams during the course of the semester as well as a final exam. There will also be a series of exercises during the semester that will have to be completed. Some of the exercises will serve as reviews of the material covered in class, particularly the computational use of the formulas. Other exercises will be conceptual in terms of asking for the evaluation of the methods used or conclusions reached. These exercises will parallel the types of questions that will be asked on the various exams. The exams will thus include applications of the formulas, the determination of the appropriate statistic to the problem under study, some methodological questions about the statistics involved, and recognition of terminology. You will not have to memorize the more complex formulas for use in the exams, but by the end of the semester you will be expected to know the simpler, basic formulas. The various course requirements will count the following percentages of the final grade.
Worst Hour Exam 16%
Other Two Hour Exams 23% each
Final Exam 23%
Exercises 15% total
Given the number of exercises that will be assigned during the course, either the lowest score (or zeroes for one not done) will be dropped from the computation.
Class attendance is obviously very important in a course such as this one. The information presented in the sixth week, for example, will build on the information covered in the fourth week. Once you get behind, it will be extremely difficult to catch up. Attendance will not be required as such (I will not take the roll formally). Failure to turn in the exercises on the appropriate day and poor results from the exams will be more than sufficient penalty for those who fail to attend regularly.
If something is not clear from the readings or the class presentations, ask a question. Do not let yourself move forward to the next topic when you know you are uncertain about some aspect of the present topic. It is often the case that additional explanations or clarifications are necessary in courses such as this one.
The reading assignments below are for two or three class periods in most cases. You should at least begin to read the material in questions before coming to the first class where it will be discussed. Prior readings of the material will facilitate discussion and identify problems. Dates are somewhat approximate and might vary by a day or so depending upon problems that might be encountered with particular topics. Exercises are not listed; they will be assigned in class about one week before the due date.
DATE TOPIC READINGS
Aug. 20 Introduction to Course
Aug. 22 Hypothesis Construction Bernstein & Dyer, Chaps. 1 & 2
Aug. 24 Units of Analysis Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 3, EXERCISE 1 & 2
Aug. 27 Definitions and Measurement Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 4
Sept. 5 Collection of Data & Survey Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 5, Huff,
Instruments Chap. 1; Bernstein and Dyer,
Chapters 6 & 7, EXERCISE 3
Sept. 12 Measures of Dispersion and Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 8;
the Normal Distribution Huff, Chaps. 3 & 6; EXERCISE 4
Oct. 1 *FIRST EXAM*
Oct. 3 Bivariate Relationships and Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 9;
Association Huff, Chap. 2; EXERCISE 5
Oct. 14 Probability Huff, Chapters 3 & 4;
EXERCISES 6 & 7
Oct. 19 Chi-squares and Other Bernstein & Dyer Chap. 10 to
Measures of Significance p. 191; EXERCISE 8
Nov. 5 *SECOND EXAM*
Nov. 7 Other Measures of Significance Rest of Chap. 10, Exercise 9
Nov. 12 Analysis with Controls Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 11;
EXERCISE 10
Nov. 19 Correlation Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 12
Nov. 30 *THIRD EXAM*
Dec. 3 Multiple Regression Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 13
Dec. 8 Putting It All Together? Bernstein & Dyer, Chap. 14;
Huff, Chaps. 9 & 10
Dec. 12 **FINAL EXAM** (10:30-12:30)